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Friday, February 04, 2011

Decoding Davutoğlu’s softened vision of the next decade

Nowadays, it is hard escape the name of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, let alone his policies, while discussing Turkey’s place in world politics with government officials and academics alike. Dr. Ahmet Davutoğlu, whether one likes his vision of the present, future or even the past, occupies a considerable position among contemporary statesmen.
That is why, every once in a while, especially if it is the beginning of a new year or decade, it is tenable to give a grilling on the past and weigh in on expectations for the future. In that perspective, Davutoğlu’s series of major speeches in recent weeks, whether in Washington or Erzurum, in which Turkey’s third ambassadors’ meeting was held this week (Davutoğlu's speeches are available on the Turkish Foreign Ministry's website), have been very helpful in shedding light on Turkey’s new proactive role and its performance during the last decade.
It was Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Ankara, who first called Davutoğlu Turkey’s Henry Kissinger, a powerful U.S. statesman from the recent past. If nothing else, the similarity in both men’s style – especially in terms of interpreting history for their own countries and drawing parallels or creating assignments for the future – proves Parris right. Davutoğlu, in addition to applying countless historic references into Turkey’s future foreign policy vision, also uses them to legitimize those for new beginners.
For instance, Henry Kissinger, in his book of genius, “Diplomacy,” describes Ottoman Turkey as the weakest link but one that had to be protected against other major powers, therefore resulting in its survival for an extra two hundred years. In Davutoğlu’s paradigm, for the same reason, Turkey should not, or must not, be allowed to be designated the same passive actor like it was prior to World War I, in which Ottoman Turkey was used like a pawn by other great powers.
While narrating new Turkey’s story both to the world and its own citizens (which Davutoğlu says both need to hear), according to a Turkish political science professor who is a careful Davutoğlu observer, he also seems to be at ease with reconciling this narrative with Ataturk’s vision of a secular state. Davutoğlu finds Ataturk’s slogan “peace at home, peace in the world” perfectly coherent with the work of his administration as it seeks to prevent conflict around Turkey.
For Davutoğlu, in reality, 21st century international diplomacy started in 1989 when the Iron Curtain fell. Since then, Davutoğlu argues, a new phase continued into the next decade, in which the rest of the century will be structured by "city planners" like clear sighted wise men. Davutoğlu mentions the G20 as one of the most significant groups of this new decade and Turkey’s growing economy and clout in other countries’ economy as also playing an important role.
In that sense, not only classic diplomacy, but energy, climate and economic diplomacy will also have more sway in boosting a country’s influence in the international arena.
Davutoğlu is urging Turkish diplomacy to adjust to the new times and transform its identity from a simple or traditional firefighter, who only puts out fires when they occur, to a sort of “wise firefighter,” who can also sense upcoming devastation and preempt it from happening. Because it is a wise country, Turkey will not only “react” to events but will bring its own interpretation to problems. To do so, Turkey must be one of those city planners who will design the future, because, Davutoğlu argues, the planners of the last 200 years did a pretty bad job in terms of preventing fires.
During the speech, it was surprising to hear Davutoğlu cite the “flotilla attack” as one of those moments when Turkish diplomacy failed to live up to its potential role of being a “wise firefighter” in 2010.
Davutoğlu praised Turkish diplomats’ quick response to that particular event in the early hours of the crisis, but also said they acted in roles equivalent to mere extinguishers in the tragedy. In Davutoğlu’s rhetoric, the “flotilla incident” was given as a sample to prove what happens if and when Turkey does things unwisely.
Davutoğlu has been accused for sometime of being utopian in his ambitious characterization of Turkey’s real weight, portraying it as an ultimate mediator between East and West or North and South. He also had to endure criticism for his aspiring rhetoric which always seemed to disregard the manpower that his foreign ministry has vs. needs.
Obviously bothered by being called as “utopian,” or “dreamer,” in Erzurum, Davutoğlu not only used more of a down to earth kind of dialogue, but he also directly responded to those critiques, just like he did in Washington.  
Davutoğlu, in Erzurum, while emphasizing “integration” with neighboring countries big and small, argued that integration should happen on “equal” terms and affirmed that Turkey does not seek to dominate any country, but is working towards an “equal future.”
Davutoğlu also announced that number of Turkish diplomats currently reached 1868, almost a one third increase within just two year, but still third of that United Kingdom currently employs. To address understaffing issues effectively, the Foreign Ministry, in addition to increasing the number of diplomats, a series of legal changes to the Foreign Ministry’s organization law which were adopted by Parliament in last summer.
While drawing parallels with beginning of the 20th century, Davutoğlu sounded as if he expects that just like a hundred years ago the future will bring monumental changes that could potentially create new havoc around Turkey.  
The financial crises that started more than two years ago, according to Davutoğlu, still have the contingency to become social and political crises.
Since the Cold War ended so have the static alliances and Turkey must convert itself into a dynamic country. This is exactly what Turkey is striving to do, Davutoğlu concluded.
When looking back on 2010, Davutoğlu gave a pass to Turkish diplomacy. Turkey’s visibility has increased, Davutoğlu reminded us. Indeed, if we were to believe that “there is no bad advertising,” Turkey had a good PR year in terms of gaining more recognition.
In the beginning of a new year, and the dawning of a new decade, Davutoğlu’s vision seems to be somewhat softened and more adjustable to the real world in front of his first class diplomats. Davutoğlu sounded as though reconciled with Turkey’s secular past and Atatürk’s vision, rather than condescending toward neighbors while affirming that are all are on equal footing.
Until an opposition emerges that incorporates a vision that can compete with Davutoğlu’s interpretations of the past, present and future, Davutoğlu will surely remain a strong figure with the backing of a strong and stable administration.
Davutoğlu presented his arguments well enough to make most feel like his administration's rule would continue for a quiet sometime.
 
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READER COMMENTS

Guest - canaroglu
2011-01-09 20:42:51
 It is not a softened vision, just a better hidden/camuflated vision! 
Guest - Paul
2011-01-09 20:05:05
 It seems like Turkish leadership sees what it wants to see, not what is. Instead of spending its energy trying to portray itself an an important international actor (not regional bully), Turkey should focus its energy on itself and its own people to establish a more coherent, democratic society and the greater socio-economic development that comes from it. It should be open to the West, not fearful of it. I also believe Turkey can reach true greatness if it embraces the multiculturalism it inherited from its Ottoman past, instead of suppressing it. 
Guest - Lion
2011-01-09 14:56:49
 2steve who said " Your government DENIES OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE DAILY!!" What is the peace that Israel is denying? Israel has already agreed to a Palestinian state, unforunatlely the Palestinians have not agreed for a Jewish state to exist and this is the source of the conflict. I want to remind you that Israel gave 80% of its territories for peace with Egypt (a country 10 times larger than Israel), can you give a wise explanation of why not give additional 20% for peace... 
Guest - Shalom
2011-01-08 19:54:22
 @Steve.-Was it a fantasy when Turkey was the only country to bring together (albeit at low level) talks between Syria and Israel in Turkey. This was just before the change in attitude in the Turkish government. Even the Syrian president feels the loss of this mediation, and has stated how Turkey should not cut off relations with Israel if it wants to be an international player in the middle east. Israel has peace with Egypt, Jordan and many other Arab countries. Hopefully it is only a matter of time until there will be a full and final peace in the middle east. Many innocent and guilty people will die in the mean time until a wise old fire man appears who has the trust of all the players and can do what others cannot. At the moment he is nowhere to be found. 
Guest - Shalom
2011-01-08 19:45:05
 @Steve.-Was it a fantasy when Turkey was the only country to bring together (albeit at low level) talks between Syria and Israel in Turkey. This was just before the change in attitude in the Turkish government. Even the Syrian president feels the loss of this mediation, and has stated how Turkey should not cut off relations with Israel if it wants to be an international player in the middle east. Israel has peace with Egypt, Jordan and many other Arab countries. Hopefully it is only a matter of time until there will be a full and final peace in the middle east. Many innocent and guilty people will die in the mean time until a wise old fire man appears who has the trust of all the players and can do what others cannot. At the moment he is nowhere to be found. 
Guest - ilker/cyprus
2011-01-08 18:39:47
 To all the Israeli bloggers try reading your own newspapers about your own foreign minster Lieberman. The Haaretz newspaper etitorial calling for his sacking for calling the Turkish minster a Lier and Abbas a dictator and even criticising his own prime minster for talking peace with Abbas.Under the heading "To change Israel image abroad Lieberman must go". This guy is a complete Nut Job and is very dangerous with his Zionists views is only damageing Israel and the Israeli citizens should be very worried. Netanhayu has been warning of the dangers of the DELEGITIMZATION of Israel abroad. It appears Netanhayu wants to talk peace but Lieberman dont. He is at odds with his own PRIME MINSTER. Just like before he fell out with Sharon and then with Olmert this guy cant get on with anybody and is a war monger and to top it all he has access to 200 nuclear bombs so the world should be worried. 
Guest - Steve
2011-01-08 18:22:14
 @ Shalom: Your fantasy perplexes me, and I am sure many others -- you say: "If you were the wise old fireman [Davutoglu] you would have traveled to Israel, Gaza, Hebron, Syria and Lebanon and back and forth until you helped push through peace." . . . Are you really implying that the phenomenally intransigent and belligerent Israeli government would have found peace had Turkey tried harder? How crazy are you man! WE hear straight from your horse's mouths (the Modovian bar bouncer and the Yahoo) that ONLY Israel and the Palestinians can negotiate peace and everyone needs to stay the hell out of their business!!! Your government DENIES OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE DAILY!!! Best come back to earth -- the lack of oxygen has truly affected your mind ;-) 
Guest - Yaacov
2011-01-08 17:14:25
 They say all kids want to be Firefighters! Davutoglu is only expressing his heartfelt desire. 
Guest - Shalom
2011-01-08 16:00:29
 Davutoglu.--Too late. You and your PM far from being fire fighters, you sprayed gasoline on the Marmara . Being wise would have been to stop the militants in the convoy who have no interest in peace instead of inciting them and threatening Israel to let them thru. If you were the wise old fireman you would have travelled to Israel,Gaza,Hebron, Syria and Lebanon and back and forth until you helped push through peace. Using your influences to calm angers down,to persuade people to talk to each other. But you are not as wise as you think you are. In fact you have only added to the problems of the middle east.you are the only fire fighter to add fuel to the fire, and you are no longer seen as a moderate or an intermediary. What a shame , you missed the opportunity. 
Guest - babadog
2011-01-08 05:12:40
 Its not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog is a popular saying in the English language and how true it is.Thats why I would have Mr Ahmet Davutoglu fight my corner any time.He is a rare man of vision with a powerful analytical mind but above all he is determined and simply bursting with creativity and energy.He always smiles thats why hes a champion.Mr BB take note of the man who has given Turkiye its self respect back. 
Guest - MARTIN
2011-01-08 00:41:47
 Are we to understand that the FM takes responsability for the flotilla incident?Its high time!

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