The cost of inaction in Syria will be greater

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-cost-of-inaction-in-syria-will-be-greater-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=15670&NewsCatID=423

March/10/2012
It has been almost a year since the Syrian people began their uprising, following the arrest of over a dozen children for painting anti-regime graffiti on the walls of a local school in Daraa.

It wasn’t the first time the Syrian regime’s forces had mistreated its citizens, on the contrary, the regime had been rough on its citizens, especially the Sunni Arab population, for decades. What was different this time, what sparked the year-long uprising, was the wave of revolutions, the Great Arab Awakening, which mesmerized the Syrian people.

On Monday, Senator John McCain, by calling for a joint coalition of countries, led by the U.S., to intervene in Syria in order to help create safe havens, renewed the debate on the pros and cons of such a move into Syria. Many experts argue that the spread of retribution and minority killings would be increased by the use of international force. There is indeed a minority problem in Syria that needs to be recognized and cannot be simply wished away. Whether there is an intervention or not, the post-Assad Syria will have to deal with this problem. Turkey, which has accomplished more than Syria has in the last century in terms of democratic progress, is also still dealing with its own Kurdish minority problems socially, politically, and militarily, of which the latter has cost about 40 thousand lives in the last three decades.

One thing is for sure: The longer al-Assad and his criminal clan stay in power, the deeper the sectarianism goes, consequently increasing the chance of a civil war. That is why the rapid removal of the al-Assad regime should be the ultimate goal, if one of the main concerns is to prevent a civil war.

On the other hand, it is not the international community’s mission to end the sectarian problem in Syria, because that would probably require a nation-building effort, and we have all witnessed how successful the Western allies have been at doing that in the last decade. It will be the Syrians who will have to deal with this problem head on.

Inaction on the part of the West would also likely cause some parts of the Syrian opposition to be further militarized by the various Islamic jihadist groups. More radicalized Sunni Arabs, who are expected to grab power after the Assad regime falls, are likely to harbor more anger toward minorities. The more disenchanted the Syrian opposition becomes with the West, as Western “help” drags on, the more likely it is to be open to the idea of collaborating with al-Qaeda, since al-Qaeda seems to be offering them help with hastening al-Assad’s downfall, in their time of need.

While the preparations for an intervention in Syria are in the making, a second track designed to unify the opposition, convincing them to reassure the minorities by guaranteeing their rights in the post-Assad period, also ought to be advanced.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Syria is currently a totalitarian police state in which all the top jobs, including intelligence, security, defense and diplomacy go to Alawites. Seeing their survival as tied to the regime, members of this sect have led the way, going out to kill or order to kill. However, when these security forces are in Druze, Ismaili or Kurdish areas, they tend to avoid killing, in order that the coalition of the minorities, one of the main pillars supporting the regime, can remain in existence.

The force of a credible threat would also very likely help to shift dynamics on the ground in Syria, by encouraging the many to join the opposition who have thus far stayed away. During my 12 hours under arrest in Syria at the end of January, I met two members of the security forces who were willing to use derogatory language about al-Assad and his loyal thugs, the Shabihas, when no one was listening. If a credible threat is brought to bear against the al-Assad regime, it would also likely accelerate defections to the opposition at an unpredictable pace.

The U.S., the West in general, and finally Turkey have to come to realize that in order to have leverage in the post-Assad period, they have to help now. By not intervening, the West is losing the goodwill of the Syrian people, who have been brutalized for almost a year now.





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mara mcglothin



3/22/2012 3:16:50 PM

Exactly KEVIN There is a civil war going on that needs to come to its own conclusion. Hopefully the USA has learned its lesson about getting involved in other peoples' fights. Time for us to pray for the Syrian people and stay out of the way.

Eric Martin



3/10/2012 10:13:27 AM

Forget the USA. The wont help because of fear of getting intangled in another war or fear of AlQueda. Turkey should join Qatar and Saudis and Libyans by donating 'real' firepower that can neutralize Assads forces. They need phones,medical help too

Kevin Snapp



3/10/2012 4:55:25 AM

When will people stop talking about "preventing civil war"? Is it "civil war" only when the regime's opponents shoot back, rather than submit to organized murder? If so, that line was crossed months ago.

Syrian Kurds welcome Turkish humanitarian corridor to Syria

February/27/2012


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syrian-kurds-welcome-turkish-humanitarian-corridor-to-syria.aspx?pageID=449&nID=14695&NewsCatID=423

The international community finally got together in Tunis on Feb. 24 to begin the end of the Bashar al-Assad regime.

One of the most important pieces of the Syrian opposition puzzle is undoubtedly the Syrian Kurds. The Kurdish National Council (KNC) has combined with 11 different Syrian Kurdish parties after suspending their membership in the Syrian National Council (SNC) in recent months, hurting representation in the latter greatly.

In Tunis, even though it wasn’t on the agenda, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with the head of the KNC, Abdulhakim Bashar, along with the head of the SNC, Burhan Ghalioun, as well as a member, Basma Kodamani, to advance the calls for unification.

It appears that the unification project hasn’t worked out well so far. According to sources who have knowledge of the meetings, Bashar expressed his council’s wish that the new Syria be a secular state. He also insisted that the solution to the Kurdish issue would be through constitutional recognition based on international conventions and agreements that would also secure the rights of other minorities. Finally, Bashar emphasized the fact that the United States should put pressure on Syrian Islamic groups to change their political programs. Clinton, on the other hand, urged the KNC to reach an agreement with the SNC as soon as possible and affirmed the US’ support for the rights of Kurds through protection mechanisms in the new constitution.

Heyam Aqil, an adviser to Bashar, relayed Ghalioun’s promises to the Kurdish minority on Feb. 24, saying “decentralization” and the “recognition of the rights of the Kurdish people” are not new. “The SNC agreed to a decentralized government which is different from politically decentralized governance” – which the KNC has asked for – Aqil said. “In fact, Syria is based on decentralized governance currently. Each governorate or province is managing local affairs. So in terms of this particular point, the SNC is not offering anything new.”

The KNC says the SNC’s efforts are “progressive” but insufficient and instead has four main demands.

1) The constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people and their Kurdish national identity. 2) Consideration of the Kurdish issue as a main part of the general national issue of Syria. 3) The lifting of all chauvinistic policies and discriminatory laws applied against the Kurdish people and compensation for those who have been affected by such policies. 4) Recognition of the national rights of the Kurdish people according to international conventions and agreements in a decentralized government within a united Syria.

Welcoming the humanitarian corridor

A French-led proposal for a humanitarian corridor from the Turkish border would almost certainly pass through Aleppo, a largely Sunni and Kurdish city. Aqil, for the first time, said “any kind of humanitarian aid to the cities under shelling is welcomed by Kurds and the Syrian opposition as a whole.” Such a scheme, however, would need Syria’s agreement. “The victims of the killing machine are increasing and the international community must take an action in order to protect the people of Homs and Idlib,” Aqil said.

PYD attacks anti-Assad Kurdish protestors

One high-level source from the Syrian Kurdish groups confirmed recent reports of attacks by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey, the U.S. State Department and the European Union.

“We, Kurds, have to be aware of this game and prevent a Kurdish-Kurdish conflict which is in the regime’s interests,” the source said. “The KNC must take responsibility and play that role of keeping the Kurdish areas safe. If those reports were true, then I think the PYD’s military branch is doing [these attacks]. Their military branch doesn’t take commands from the PYD’s political branch. It takes commands from the Qandil mountains and al-Assad’s regime has given them the green light to [move into action].”

February/27/2012

US, Turkey and the Syrian opposition

US, Turkey and the Syrian opposition

February/18/2012


İLHAN TANIR / OMAR HOSSİNO

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-turkey-and-the-syrian-opposition.aspx?pageID=449&nID=14040&NewsCatID=423

One of the biggest obstacles preventing the international community from giving a decisive outside push to overthrow Bashar al-Assad is its inability to see a viable, unified alternative for the post-Assad period.

That there are real barriers towards the Syrian opposition unifying is extremely troubling for Syria’s stability in the long term, even though it is clear that the success of expanding the revolution to minority groups and the Sunni middle class, especially in cities like Aleppo, is very important.

According to Randa Slim, a fellow at the New American Foundation, there are some signs that the Syrian regime, through Lebanon and Iraq, has been working to get around the economic sanctions to create an immune system.

The civil war in Syria

The prevention of sectarian civil war in Syria, and the establishment of a real and inclusive democracy after al-Assad, depends almost entirely on unifying the opposition and, more specifically, compromise. The Syrian National Council or SNC, (formed in Istanbul, based in Paris, and already recognized as the official representative of the people’s opposition in Syria by France, the U.S. and others), has made some progress in this regard. It has expanded its membership and made statements with regard to minority groups – however, it has done too little.

For instance, in the past month, the SNC attempted to make an agreement with the Kurdish opposition, the largest minority group in Syria, which is mostly unified in the Kurdish Syrian National Council (KNC). Basma Kodmani and Burhan Ghalioun of the SNC visited the head of the KNC, Abdal Hakim Bashar, in Erbil, Iraq. The Kurds, backed and united by Iraqi Kurdistan, demanded federalism, which Bashar said was essential to prevent civil war in Syria. Kodmani said the SNC viewed federalism as a radical proposal, and the Muslim Brotherhood’s spokesman Zuhair Salim rejected it outright. The talks faltered and the SNC has since lost the membership of all Kurdish parties and has thus become less representative.

One major factor preventing the SNC coming to a compromise with the Kurdish opposition might have been Turkey. Turkey’s support for the SNC and a wide variety of Syrian opposition groups has been recognized by all informed parties. However Ankara, even though Turkish officials deny it, appears to be supporting the Islamist elements within SNC, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, more than others. One of the major shared interests of both Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood, for many Kurds, is that they are against Kurdish parties who demand greater autonomy in their regions.

Turkey’s appearance in support of more Islamist elements within the Syrian opposition might not only alienate the Kurds, who do not have a single Islamist party in Syria, but also other minorities, some nationalist and secular elements as well.

The U.S. in particular has played a significant role in attempting to unify the Syrian opposition, by conditioning their recognition of the SNC as the legitimate government of Syria on providing more assurances towards minority groups. The U.S. has been engaged in facilitating talks to unify the Syrian opposition since before the SNC’s formation, and it was the main organizer of the talks between the SNC and KNC last month. The U.S. appears to be the only power with interest in pulling this off in a non-sectarian manner, as especially Qatar and Saudi Arabia, in one way or another, have interests in supporting Sunni Islamist groups.

Only a unified opposition can reflect all of Syria’s diverse communities and through compromise provide the stability that will allow all parts of Syrian society to feel stable and free after the fall of al-Assad. A unified opposition with a vision for all of Syria’s communities will decrease the risk of sectarian civil war and broaden the base of the uprising.

The friends of Syria conference in Tunisia, taking place next week, will be a great platform to start urgently doing just that.



*Omar Hossino is a Syria expert, currently based in Washington, DC

The al-Assad regime deserves to be demolished

February/04/2012
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/the-al-assad-regime-deserves-to-be-demolished.aspx?pageID=449&nID=12995&NewsCatID=423

It is 9 a.m. in the morning in Harasta, one of the suburbs of Damascus, and there is loud banging at the door. It is only a few seconds until the door opens up and I face the dreaded Syrian security forces, whose atrocities I have been listening to, documenting and reporting on while I have been in Syria.



Harasta is only a 15-minute drive from Damascus’ city center and was in the hands of the Free Syrian Army militias in previous days. During the night of Jan. 25, heavy clashes between the Syrian regime and the free army lasted the whole night until the dawn when the sound of the muezzin’s voice calling the faithful for morning prayers blended with the continuing sound of Kalashnikovs shooting. Only when we saw the regime soldiers at the doorstep did we realize who had won the fight.



Mohammad Abood, 23, whom I met over the Internet and asked to stay at his house for a couple of days for reasons that have nothing to do with my undercover journalism, is now at the door, getting a heavy beating from the soldiers who trade turns insulting him. One shabiha, who appears to be the leader of the four-to-five squad of soldiers, is directing them to search the house, while giving other orders and questioning me at the same time.



The two-bedroom apartment is turned upside down by the soldiers, but for the time being, they seem undecided what to do with me, though they dutifully confiscated all my personal belongings, including my computer, camera, phone and whatever they deemed necessary into plastic bags. The belongings were never returned.



Now we are in the narrow streets of Harasta but not alone. Every corner has a few soldiers guarding the city as if they are an occupying army in a foreign land. A few other groups of arrested Harasta residents coming from the muddy, steep streets appear to share the same faith as we do. After a couple-minute walk to a larger road, I see a few other arrested groups joining us to be taken to one of the security complexes in the city, knowing that the worst yet to come.



In only 14 days, in a half-dozen suburbs of Damascus, I have seen the viciousness of the security forces every single day in different forms and shapes. I have witnessed unarmed protesters being attacked twice, one of which was a funeral crowd who were joyfully praising their “martyr” on Jan. 21 in the city of Douma. After I arrived in this city on Jan. 19 to leave the next night, my plans had to change because the Syrian Army would be laying siege in eastern Ghouta for the next four days.



In central Damascus, I saw individuals getting arrested in broad daylight for no apparent reason.

And finally I was arrested, along with over a thousand people in a single morning in Harasta, in which I witnessed scores of old and young locals receiving their first heavy whippings in the front yard of the Harasta Police Hospital. Surely what awaited them in the coming days and weeks will be the most horrifying.



I talked with a much respected local doctor who had been jailed twice and tortured since the Syrian revolution began just because he insisted on treating wounded protestors who came to his hospital.

Doctors are prohibited from carrying any kind of first-aid kit under this evil regime, and if found, even mere pain killers in their cars constitute a crime warranting arrest because it shows their intention of helping injured people in some other place.



The horror stories I have heard from scores of local people were beyond any imagination.



When Col. Moammar Gadhafi said he would do house-to-house raids to hunt down the rebels like rats, the international community moved immediately to stop the pending slaughter, invoking the much-discussed “right to protect” civilians in Libya.



The Syrian regime’s regular and irregular forces search houses every single day for months, one of which I was also victim of. The regime sends dozens of its tanks into the streets, hits the cities with mortar shells and terrifies its people day in, day out.



This regime deserves to be demolished.

February/04/2012



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Blue Dotterel



2/4/2012 11:00:10 AM

The people of Syria should decide the fate of the Assad regime, not Turks, Americans or Israelis. So far the majority of the people support the regime, as the Arab observers noted in their report. Keep your hands off Syria!

I have seen the evil regime

January/30/2012


http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/i-have-seen-the-evil-regime-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=12541&NewsCatID=423

I have spent the last two weeks in Damascus and its suburbs, and I have seen the Syrian regime’s brutality and oppression with my own eyes.



Central Damascus is strictly controlled by the regime’s security forces. The city’s central roads and squares are filled with police, and there is a heavy security presence. There are a lot of armed security vehicles, blocked roads and heavily protected military complexes throughout the city.



The biggest hotel in Damascus, the Four Seasons, was also one of the emptiest places I saw.



Throughout our long conversations with the managers there, I learned that the hotel has had to fire more than two thirds of its 650 workers and close two of its three high-end restaurants since the revolution began 10 months ago.



Police at the security checkpoints are looking for suspicious-looking people to arrest, both entering and leaving Damascus. On my third day, I was able to get out of the city by taking extreme care to avoid the security’s watchful eyes. Outside Damascus is a completely different story. Only a 20-minute drive brings one to places that are filled with rebels’ revolutionary flags, placards insulting Bashar al-Assad, and graffiti everywhere.



Most, if not all suburbs, are holding “mudahara” protests every night. When I first witnessed a mudahara on Jan. 14, in the Damascus suburb of Qaboun, the regime’s irregular forces, the “shabihas,” attacked unarmed protestors in front of my eyes. Two or three minutes into the demonstrations, when people began chanting “hurriyet,” or “freedom,” Kalashnikovs began shooting indiscriminately into the crowd.



My friends tried to protect me by hurrying me into a car, but it was too late for us to speed away from the scene. I saw shabihas dragging one protestor, shot seconds before, into their car. I saw several others arrested and given heavy beatings. A shabiha in his mid-40s, with white hear and a clean-shaven face, let us go after our driver calmly explained that we were just passing through and had been stopped by the protestors.



This was a lifetime’s experience for me, but something protestors in Syria are going through every day.



During my stay I visited countless families who had lost their sons; saw orphaned little children who still didn’t know what happened to their fathers, uncles and relatives. The regime’s security forces sometimes randomly kill people simply because they are in the wrong place at the wrong time.



But the misery doesn’t end there.



The regime’s security forces systematically arrest all the relatives of a person they just killed in order to silence them. I have heard of many arrested and tortured just because their last names are the same as somebody killed by the security forces. The al-Assad regime clearly demonstrated to me its skills in terrorizing its people.



I visited more than half a dozen different Free Syrian Army (FSA) branches in various cities and the FSA appeared much stronger than anyone described before. Except for central Damascus, every city has its own FSA organization. Some of them were recently formed and are growing fast, others are already taking over the streets during the evenings. They establish their own checkpoints in these ghettos to protect the protesters. I heard over and over again from people on the ground that their only hope is for the FSA to succeed.



Judging from the many FSA leaders and soldiers I talked to, it is clear how determined they are against the Assad regime. Despite all odds, Syrians I talked to, especially in the Rif Dimashq province, are determined more than ever to overthrow this regime. It is up to other governments to be part of this revolution.

January/30/2012



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Chris Green



1/30/2012 12:45:37 AM

I worked in Syria, at Damascus International Airport, in fact, in 1999 under Hafez Assad: At the time, I was the only western engineer to have done so. I never had a moments problem there but I knew of the history. I had high hopes of Bashar: Tragic!

My Qs and As w/State Dpt. Spox Victoria Nuland, Jan 6, 2012, Press Briefing

Turkey Military chief arrest

QUESTION:  On Turkey quickly, yesterday former Turkish military chief got arrested.  Do you have any read on that?

MS. NULAND:  On the arrest of the former chief of the armed forces of Turkey?

QUESTION:  Yesterday, yes, last night.

MS. NULAND:  Well, we’re obviously monitoring developments in this case as well.  It’s quite a high-profile case in the ongoing Erdogan case.  We have urged the Turkish Government to ensure that the investigations, any prosecutions in this – in these cases proceed in a transparent manner, that all the defendants be assured due process in accordance with international standards, and that should be the case, obviously, with regard to the former chief of staff of the armed forces.

QUESTION:  When did you urge them of this?  Today?

MS. NULAND:  Well, we’ve been urging it all along since this round of prosecutions began.  I don't have specifics, but I’m confident that the Embassy has, again, made those demarches to the Turkish Government in recent days.

QUESTION:  Is there any way you can (inaudible) as what kind of respond have you been receiving?  It has been about a couple years now that you have been urging Turkish Government. 

MS. NULAND:  Well, I think the Turkish Government obviously knows that we’re monitoring this closely and that we want to see the Turkish constitution upheld and international standards upheld.

Davutoglu visit to Iran/Iran sanctions

QUESTION:  Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu was in Tehran yesterday.  A couple of questions:  They stated – Irani foreign minister state that their goal is to double the trade between Turkey and Iran between – foreseeable future.  How do you assess these new goals in terms of isolation of Iran, just the context you described earlier?

MS. NULAND:  Well, we’ve seen some of the announcements primarily from the Iranian side of the results of this visit.  We have begun consultations with the Turkish side on what it gleaned, what its messages were, and what it learned when it was – when Minister Davutoglu was in Tehran.  Our Ambassador in Ankara was in to see the minister today.  I frankly don’t have a report on that meeting, but one of the subjects that they were discussing was a debrief on this trip.

There is no question that the United States and Turkey share the goal of bringing Iran back to the table and back into compliance with its international obligations.  We don’t always have an identical view on tactics, but the strategic goal is the same, so I – that’s why it’s so important that we consult on what the minister saw on his trip and next steps that he sees.

QUESTION:  In the past, there were similar goals stated by both countries, and at the time you stated from this podium that it is not a problem, obstacle, whether Turkey’s increasing its trade with Iran.  In general, if this is the case, do you think it’s a problem now?

MS. NULAND:  Again, I think we wanted to consult with the Turkish side on its intentions.  If we’re talking about baby food, it’s not a problem, but – there could be other issues, but I don’t want to prejudge Turkish intentions before we’ve had a chance to consult with Turkey.

QUESTION:  Iran foreign minister yesterday also said Turkey could be the best venue for the next round of talks on the nuclear program.  Do you have a view on this?

MS. NULAND:  Well, let’s start with the fact that public statements notwithstanding, the Iranian side has not yet formally advised us that it is ready for the next round of P-5+1 talks.

My Qs and As w/State Dpt. Spox Victoria Nuland, Dec 29, 2011, Press Briefing

Turkish Jets civilians killing/US role

QUESTION:  I have two quick question related to Turkey. 

MS. NULAND:  I can’t imagine – they’re really related to Turkey?

QUESTION:  Yes.

MS. NULAND:  I’m so surprised.

QUESTION:  Turkish Government today acknowledged that mistake was made and over 30 civilians were killed in the southeastern city of Sirnak in Turkey.  Given the extensive cooperation between the U.S. and Turkey, especially on intelligence matters, first of all, have you been able to get in touch with the Turkish counterparts how this happened?  Because the general’s staff today also stated that there’s an investigation underway.  Are you taking any role?  And some blame, of course, that since the U.S. giving intelligence, you might have a role within this accident.

MS. NULAND:  This is an incident that has just happened.  In terms of the government’s reaction, I think probably it’s more appropriate to ask the Turkish side what they are doing with regard to the investigation.  But clearly, they’ve said that they will investigate.

QUESTION:  So you have not been contacted by Turkish Government asking any kind of –

MS. NULAND:  Not to my knowledge.

Turkey/Journalists arrest

QUESTION:  And last week, I asked about the arrested journalists.  I was told that Mark was going to get me back.  Do you have any update?  Have you been able to talk to Turkish Government on these trials that have been going on and added new ones now?

MS. NULAND:  Let me apologize if we didn’t get back to you.  I’ll take it again, and we’ll endeavor to get back to you before the end of the day.

QUESTION:  Thank you.

...

Egypt NGO raids/SCAF relations

QUESTION:  Could you give us some details, Toria?  We have been hearing on the ground that they went in; they took basically everything – papers, computers, et cetera.  Also confirm that nobody was injured and that they might have taken some money as well?

MS. NULAND:  I don't know about the last issue, Jill.  We’ve obviously been in contact with NDI and with IRI during the course of the day.  They’ve reported concerns not only about their staff but about their property, about their ability to continue to operate.  And we have relayed, as you see here, both publicly and privately, our concerns about this incident. 

QUESTION:  What do you think this says more broadly about Egypt’s commitment to democracy?

MS. NULAND:  Well, again, as you know, we believe that these NGOs are there to support the democratic process.  Some of these are institutions that are supported by the United States Government, that work around the world in the interests of helping citizens realize their goals of democratic processes taking root in their country.  And we have been very open and transparent with Egyptian authorities at all levels, particularly about the operating procedures and policies of NDI, IRI, and other international – other NGOs that we support.  So we are very concerned, because this is not appropriate in the current environment.

QUESTION:  But this – is there an environment right now that’s conducive to democratic advancement, when actions such as these occur?

MS. NULAND:  Well, again, we’ve just had a number of successful rounds of elections, elections that were generally judged to be free, fair, with open, broad participation, so that is a good thing.  This is not a good thing, so we are obviously expressing our concern.

...

US/SCAF relations

QUESTION:  This not first time I believe – I think this first time you coming out this strongly and giving kind of a warning to Egyptian SCAF.  But my question is:  Is a fair description that you only come out when the NGOs like these supported by a U.S. Government being touched?  On the other hand, for months, since the revolution, there have been constant complaints come from activists.  And would be fair that you have been quiet all those months, complaints similar to this?

MS. NULAND:  I don’t think that’s fair.  We’ve spoken out about freedom of NGO activity for many months in the Egyptian context and asked for a level playing field for all international NGOs.

QUESTION:  Is this going to trigger any kind of process, or it already triggered any kind of process about the relationship between the U.S. Government and the SCAF from now on?  Or will it be in the future if you did not receive the answer you had been seeking?

MS. NULAND:  Again, we are looking for this issue to be resolved immediately.

QUESTION:  Yeah.  I have another question about that.  The conditions – there are conditions now on U.S. aid to Egypt.  Is this the kind of thing that the Secretary will take into consideration in deciding whether or not the Egyptian Government should get $1.3 billion?

MS. NULAND:  Well, Michele, as you’ve said, we do have a number of new reporting and transparency requirements on funding to Egypt that we have to make to the Congress.  The Egyptian Government is well aware of that, and it certainly needs to be aware of that in the context of how quickly this issue gets resolved.

...

AL Mission/Syria

QUESTION:  Two question on the Arab League mission.  According to press reports, there are only 66 Arab monitors today currently in Syria.  Do you think this number is enough to satisfy the expectations?

MS. NULAND:  Well, our understanding is that the Arab League intended, over a period of days and weeks, to deploy somewhere between 150 and 300 monitors.  So they’re in the middle of that deployment now.  So I think we need to let them continue to try and get their people on the ground and see whether it’s sufficient.

QUESTION:  Yesterday, Syrian National Council called for – called on head of the Arab mission, Mr. al-Dabi, to leave the post.  Do you think head of the mission is credible enough to continue his work?

MS. NULAND:  I’m not going to comment from this podium – we’re not going to comment on the individuals that the Arab League is deploying.  As I said, we’re going to judge this mission by fulfillment of the mandate that it has promised its own people and that it’s promised the Syrian people, that it will deploy fully, that it will have full access, and that it will report honestly and credibly on what it finds.

QUESTION:  From this podium in the past you’ve said that the U.S. believes that if monitors were in place, the Assad regime would not be able to do its worst.  It does appear that the attacks do continue and that these monitors are playing a game of whack-a-mole. How concerned are you that this is not stopping the violence?  And do you have any concerns about the mission itself – the monitoring mission itself, which has come under some criticism for having a somewhat muted response?

MS. NULAND:  Well, first of all we are concerned as you point out that even though we have monitors on the ground, and they are playing a role in some places, we also have a continuation of the violence.  For example, we’ve had reports of at least 10 people killed in Homs, Hama, and Idlib yesterday, even as the Arab League monitors were trying to deploy there.  So – and we’ve had violence in other parts of Syria.  That said, if you go up on YouTube today, you can see great pictures of a democracy rally in Idlib, that went forward with quite a crowd at the same time that the monitors were there.  So clearly, their presence appears to have provided some space for public expression. 

But what we want to see, as we’ve said from the beginning, is that monitors able to move throughout Syria, to talk to anybody that they want to talk to including political prisoners who are still locked up.  We also want to see all the terms of the Arab League agreement implemented.  So it’s not only a matter of a deploying the monitors; it’s a matter of the Syrian Government living up to its commitment to withdraw heavy weapons from the cities; to stop the violence everywhere, which clearly has not happened; to release all political prisoners.  We’ve seen a modest prisoner release, but it appears that the most important, high-profile political activists have not been released. 

And we also want to see Syria opened to the press.  You may have seen that in recent days the Syrian opposition has been calling on international journalists to, again, try to apply for visas and to see what happens, to see if the Syrian Government will live up to its commitment to open its streets more.  So unfortunately, the violence continuing, Syrian regime still propagating violence against its own people.  But in some people where the monitors have deployed, we see some positive signs, but not enough.

My Qs and As w/State Dpt. Spox Mark Toner, Dec 22, 2011, Press Briefing

Mr. Dabi, the head of the Arab League Mission

QUESTION:  Have you got a chance to see who is the head of the mission, Mr. Dabi who has been (inaudible) in the Sudan work with the – al-Bashir for decades.  What’s your understanding, whether his profile fits into the --

MR. TONER:  Well, we are aware of the individual, that he was appointed by Bashir as an advisor on Darfur.  Certainly, Sudanese armed forces and national intelligence and security service have a disturbing human rights record over the last 20 years of Bashir’s rule.  I’m not aware of those – of individual allegations against him or his actions.  I think our concern right now is getting this monitor mission up and running on the ground in Syria in the hopes that it can help stem this recent violence.  I mean, it’s ongoing violence, but the recent uptick in violence that has really grown to atrocious proportions over the last several days. 

We’ve got a seven-member team on the ground from the Arab League now; we just hope they can get more monitors in and get set up.  As I said, and our hope is that they will end the violence and that will a – will be able to stop the killing.

International Contact Group for Syria

QUESTION:  Again on Syria.  Is there a plan for to create international contact group like you did in the Libyan case?  A few weeks ago, Mr. Feltman at the – on the Hill mentioned something like this is floating around.  I’m just wondering whether --

MR. TONER:  Yeah.  I mean, it’s a fair question.  We’ve had such frequent contacts, obviously, with the Arab League, with Turkey, with our other likeminded partners in the EU.  So I don’t know that there’s a real need.  We’ve already got good communications, frequent communications; we’re trying to coordinate as best as possible.  Whether going forward that might be an idea we’ll entertain to kind of improve coordination remains to be seen.

...

QUESTION:  Do you have anything to say about the arrival of the advance team from the Arab League.

MR. TONER:  Just that we expect that – I’m sorry, rather.  We’ve seen reports that the advanced team of seven Arab League officials are currently on the ground in Syria, and our understanding is that these people are going to lay the groundwork for more observers to begin work in the near future – should grow to about 30 to 50, not including administration – administrative support and that kind of staff.

But – and I would just add that we’re all aware of the outbreak of violence in Syria over the last couple of days since they’ve signed the protocol on Arab League observers.  And again, it just speaks to fact that this regime – actions speak for themselves.  We’ve seen, to date, no real attempt on the part of the regime to end its campaign of violence, incitement, and intimidation.

...

Iraq/Hashimi-Iran

QUESTION:  Vice President Hashimi, today, told Washington Times, that, quote, Iran definitely involved in move to arrest him.  Do you have any evidence to support that?

MR. TONER:  We do not.  We continue to call on any legal or judicial process that goes forward with respects to Vice President Hashimi to be done in full accordance with the rule of law and full transparency.  And we do note that Prime Minister Maliki did speak about the need to observe rule of law in judicial proceedings, and also that he’s called for a meeting of the various political blocs.  That’s exactly what we want to see happen.  We want to see all of the political blocs get together in an effort to – through dialogue to resolve their difference.

France/Genocide denial law/

QUESTION:  Today in France --

MR. TONER:  Yes, sorry.

QUESTION:  Today in France, lower house passed this – make illegal to recognize --

MR. TONER:  This is the genocide bill?

QUESTION:  Genocide bill.  Yeah.

MR. TONER:  Just very quickly.  Yeah.  Our views on this issue have been expressed before.  They haven’t changed.  We continue to support normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. 

The latest arrests in Turkey

QUESTION:  And one more.  Within this week there are scores of Turkish intellectuals – and about 40 of them journalists – being arrested.  It has been few days.  I just want to ask if you --

MR. TONER:  Right.  We are aware of these arrests.  I think up to 38 people were arrested, many of whom are prominent academics, journalists, intellectuals, political activists.  We’re certainly monitoring the case very closely, and we would urge that any investigations and prosecutions proceed in a very transparent manner given the sensitivity.

QUESTION:  Have you been able to talk to Turkish Government?

MR. TONER:  I’ll find out if we have. 

My Qs and As w/State Dpt. Spox Victoria Nuland, Dec 21, 2011, Press Briefing

[Reds asked by other reporters]

Greek-Cypriot FM meeting w/Sec. Clinton

QUESTION:  Foreign minister of Greek Cyprus has been in town, and she met with Secretary Clinton yesterday.  I haven’t seen any readout.  Is there any way you can elaborate on the meeting?

MS. NULAND:  I think we did have a readout yesterday.  I didn’t have it from here.  We didn’t have the question yesterday, so we didn’t give it here, but I think our European bureau gave it.  Whether I still have it, I don’t know.  I was also in the meeting.  They obviously talked about our hope that the UN process will produce a lasting settlement on Cyprus, that we have another round of those talks coming up in the end of January, and that we hope that sides will really roll up their sleeves because it is very important and very urgent. 

We also obviously talked about bilateral business, we talked about the – about Cyprus’s upcoming EU presidency, talked about Iran.  As you may know, Cyprus has recently made a decision to de-flag Iranian shipping vessels, and that was something that was obviously welcomed by the U.S.

QUESTION:  The foreign minister yesterday – she said at the think tank that one of the subjects in the meeting was Turkey’s threats in the south – East Mediterranean.  Is there any way you can elaborate on that?  What is – how do you see the latest escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean?

MS. NULAND:  I’m not – I didn’t see the foreign minister’s comments, so I’m not sure what she’s referring to.  We obviously talked about the energy issues.  Maybe that’s what she was referring to, do you think? 

QUESTION:  Yes, related to energy issues.

MS. NULAND:  Well, on energy, the Secretary restated the position that you’ve heard her give many times, that we support the right of Cyprus to exploit resources within its own zone, but we would like to see the benefits of that exploration shared among all Cypriots in the context of a full settlement of the issues between them.

Iraq VP Arrest order

QUESTION:  Do you have any position on the prime minister’s demand that the Kurds essentially return the vice president?  Do you think that’s the right way to go?

MS. NULAND:  They need to work this out within the rule of law.  They need to respect the Iraqi constitution on all sides.  If there are charges, they need to be processed appropriately within the Iraqi judicial system, as we said yesterday, and all sides need to cooperate in that.

MS. NULAND:  Well, the Ambassador has been in touch with both of those leaders in the – in recent days.  I’m not going to speak to the details of those conversations.

QUESTION:  Just a follow-up on Vice President Hashimi:  You just said that it should be solved through Iraq judicial system and rule of law.  So does it mean you have confidence in the rule of law if he were to go back, and do you think that there’s going to be a fair trial?  You have that confidence?

MS. NULAND:  We went through this conversation exhaustively yesterday.  I don’t think we need to go through it today.

QUESTION:  It was (inaudible).

MS. NULAND:  It was pretty exhaustive, so – all right. 

SYRIA/SAFE ZONES/UNSC ACTION

QUESTION: The U.S. is calling on Syria’s few remaining supporters in the international community to warn Damascus, that basically, if it doesn’t comply with the Arab League initiative, that more steps are coming.  Are we now seeing something akin to a Libya-type action?

MS. NULAND:  Ros, I think what you are seeing here is increasing concern that Syria is again in a pattern of making promises and not delivering potentially as a stalling tactic.  But in this case, particularly given the violence of the last 24 to 48 hours, we have reports just yesterday of some 84 civilians killed again by regime forces in Idlib, in Daraa, government artillery opening fire on civilian homes. 

This is not the behavior of a government that is getting ready to implement the Arab League proposals of – which some seven weeks ago it said it accepted.  And I will remind that key to that was not just the issue of allowing in monitors, but for the violence to end, for forces to go back to barracks, and for all the political prisoners to be released.  So on the contrary; we’ve got lots of promises as the government continues to mow down its own people.  So I think what you see in the statement from the White House is concern that this process of discussing monitors et cetera is not only becoming a cover for inaction, but is providing cover for increasing violence on the Syrian side. 

QUESTION:  Does this statement indicate that the level of urgency inside the U.S. Government is reaching a point where we are going to see a new set of discussions not just on additional sanctions but on some sort of intervention?

MS. NULAND:  I think what you see here is our view that the Arab League proposal really needs to be implemented now.  It is already seven weeks overdue in implementation.  The violence is increasing rather than decreasing.  We have said that we want to see more action in the UN Security Council.  So what can we do in the UN Security Council?  We can either endorse positive implementation of the Arab League plan and steps forward or we can make clear that, again, the Syrian Government has made promises, stalled, said one thing to one set of interlocutors and another thing to another set of interlocutors.  And it is absolutely time for the international community to increase the pressure on Syria and to do what it can to enforce our ability to protect civilians. 

Now, first and foremost there, would be being able to get monitors into that country.  So if we cannot do it through the Arab League proposal, that’ll be first and foremost on our list through the Security Council.

QUESTION:  How long is – I mean, if this is already seven weeks overdue, how much longer is the U.S. willing to see that Syria complies or doesn’t comply?  A day?  A week?  Another month?

MS. NULAND:  Well, I think what you see is that the frustration is growing.  Now, the Arab League believes it’ll be able to start implementing its monitoring regime this weekend.  We’re going to see whether that’s true.  But I think, particularly in light of the violence of the last 48 hours, our concern is growing that this is a delaying tactic.

QUESTION:  Does this mean we’ll see a Security Council session, emergency session called in the next several days? 

MS. NULAND:  Our work at the UN is continuing.  We are having consultations with all Security Council partners.  And in part, this statement is designed to make clear that this issue of implementing an agreement that they supposedly signed up to seven weeks ago is increasingly dragged out, even as the violence increases.

QUESTION:  (Inaudible) issued a statement today saying that these towns that being bombarded by the Syrian regime are in bad need for humanitarian assistance and for the Red – International Red Cross to provide humanitarian help.  How can you do that? 

MS. NULAND:  Well, again, we’re not in a position to do that right now because the Syrians are not allowing humanitarian workers in, they’re not allowing monitors in, they’re not allowing the press in.  So as I mentioned to Ros, these would be first on the list of things that we would want the Security Council to take up.

QUESTION:  Victoria, in the face of continued resistance by the regime to accept the Arab League proposals, and in view of what the White House said, what is the priority?  What measures that you prioritize as having to take in the future, one by one?  Do you have such a list?

...

MS. NULAND:  Well, first and foremost, tightening the sanctions.  So any countries that are continuing to trade with the regime or otherwise line its coffers and give it fuel, food, money, anything that it can use against its own people, they ought to examine hard their own national policies, strengthening international sanctions as well.  Number two, trying to get international monitors into as much of Syria as possible as the best way of bearing witness to what’s really going on and telling truth about who’s at fault here, which, as you know, we firmly believe that the responsibility lies with the regime.  The third issue would be being able to provide humanitarian support for communities in need. 

So these are not new ideas.  These are not new concerns of ours.  Our concern, and I think you see it in the urgency of the White House statement, is that this has been going on a very long time now, and the violence is getting worse, not better. 

QUESTION:  How is your level of engagement right now with Russia and China on this particular issue?

MS. NULAND:  Well, as you know, the Secretary spoke to both foreign ministers earlier this week.  I’m not sure whether – I don’t think Syria came up in the China call, but it certainly did with Foreign Minister Lavrov.  We’re also very much engaged with both countries in New York. 

QUESTION:  Again, to follow up earlier question, head of the Syrian National Council, Burhan Galioun, I believe he was not asking – not talking about the Arab League plan.  He was basically saying that these safe zones should be created, not asking – going through the Asad regime.  Are you planning, or it’s under consideration, to talk about these safe zones near the border of Turkey? 

MS. NULAND:  I’ve – we’ve seen the statements by Mr. Galioun, but we haven’t had a chance to talk to them about exactly what they envision and how they would propose that such a thing would be implemented.  We continue to believe that job one is to increase the pressure on the regime and to get monitors and the press back into Syria.

Egypt/Clashes/SCAF

QUESTION:  I’ve got a couple things.  First on Egypt, the Egyptian foreign minister was quoted with a pretty strong reaction to the Secretary’s statements about the violence against women in the protests, calling it interference in Egypt’s internal affairs and rejecting it out of hand.  I’m just wondering if they’ve made any direct representations to you.  And do you have any reaction to their reaction?

MS. NULAND:  Well, I have to say, Andy, I did not see the foreign minister’s comments.  I will tell you that the Secretary had a very good call with the new Egyptian Prime Minister Ganzouri yesterday afternoon.  She called him to congratulate him on his appointment.  They also had a very good conversation about the path that Egypt is on and the transition underway.  She, of course, reiterated our points about wanting to see a genuine, inclusive, democratic process, free elections, emphasizing the historic importance of the election process underway. 

They also talked about the security situation in Egypt, and she reiterated some of the points that we’ve made and he reiterated the government’s points that it wants to see the protests be peaceful and it is working with its security forces.  They also talked about how the United States can continue to support the economic development of the country going forward.  So from that perspective, our most recent contacts were at the prime ministerial level, and it was a very productive call, all focused in the right direction.

QUESTION:  And the prime minister didn’t mention to her or have any pushback against her comments earlier?  Did that come up? 

MS. NULAND:  Well, she obviously said that she had been greatly concerned and particularly concerned about the horrible images, and he was very clear that the Egyptian authorities want to see their security forces operate within the rule of law. 

QUESTION:  And I think the Egyptian armed forces came out with a statement --

MS. NULAND:  They did.

QUESTION:  -- saying that they were expressing great regret at the treatment of women.  What would your response be to the armed forces statement?

MS. NULAND:  Well, as you know, there was this women’s march in Cairo yesterday, and in the context of that march, as you said, the Egyptian military authorities – I think they posted it on Facebook, in addition to using other channels of communication that the women themselves had been using – expressing regret about what had happened.  So obviously we were gratified to see them recognize that these issues need to be addressed.

...

QUESTION:  Are you satisfied that Mr. Ganzouri is actually representative of the new Egypt, the post-revolution Egypt and not a relic of the past?

MS. NULAND:  Again, the Secretary had a good introductory phone call with him, and he reaffirmed his personal commitment to Egypt’s democratic path and the course that they are on.  So we are prepared to continue working together.  But as I said, the call was very cordial.

...

QUESTION:  This clashes as are still going on, as far as we see.  As far as last night, according to activists, these clashes mostly are going on during the night time.  Within the conversation with the prime minister, how – what kind of explanation you have received?  Why these clashes are still going on if the Egyptian security forces are going to act differently?

MS. NULAND:  Well, again, I think I’ve said what I want to say about the phone call.  I think we’ve been absolutely clear that with regard to the demonstrations in Egypt, peaceful protesters should have the right to protest peacefully, that obviously, on the side of the government, we are expecting them to allow peaceful protests to go forward.  That said, as the Secretary’s statement on Sunday made clear, to the extent that demonstrations are not peaceful, we are calling on demonstrators to return to peaceful practice and we want to see security forces who respond to that do so with restraint and within the rule of law.

QUESTION:  So this is the context you are seeing ongoing clashes, protestors are not peaceful and this how the security forces responding?

MS. NULAND:  I’m not going to sit here from this podium and parse every incident that’s happening in Egypt.  We’ve been very clear with the Egyptian Government privately and publicly at all levels that we expect Egyptian people to be able to exercise their right to protest peacefully.  If and when those protests are not peaceful, the security forces need to act with restraint – maximum restraint – and they need to do so within rule of law.

QUESTION:  Please, the last question.  You said you had been speaking out.  Are you ready to take any kind of action if security forces are not acting accordingly?

MS. NULAND:  Well, I’m not going to stand here with a crystal ball and predict where we’re going to go.  I think what we want to see is an Egypt that continues to proceed along an electoral path where the will of the people can be expressed through the ballot box, through peaceful protest if that’s necessary, but that violence is not a tool used by anybody.